FX Outlook: Neutral-to-Bearish Bias Dominates as Breakout Triggers Remain Elusive
Tafara Tsoka
Chief Executive Officer: Zion Venture Partners
August 4, 2025
Source: Investing.com
AUD/CHF is trading around the 0.5220 zone, which has served as a key pivot area throughout June and July. The pair has been in a slow downward drift since peaking in early May, with both the 15 SMA and 20 SMA now sloping slightly downward and capping price rallies—indicating a weakening bullish structure and rising pressure from sellers.
The broader structure shows a gradual fade in momentum following the sharp rebound from April lows. Price action has been consolidating within a tight range between 0.5170 and 0.5300, reflecting indecision and lack of directional conviction. A sustained move below the 0.5170–0.5180 support zone would likely open the door for a retest of the April low near 0.5060. On the upside, bulls would need a decisive break above 0.5300 to reclaim short-term control and shift momentum.
Bias remains neutral to slightly bearish until a clear breakout from the current range materializes.
AUD/USD is currently trading just below the 0.6600 level after failing to sustain its recent breakout above this psychologically important zone. The pair has been consolidating between 0.6450 and 0.6600 for most of June and July, struggling to build momentum in either direction. The 15 and 20 SMAs are beginning to flatten out, reflecting the ongoing indecision in the market.
Price action has recently slipped below both moving averages, raising short-term concerns for bulls. If it fails to reclaim the 0.6600 mark soon, there is a risk of renewed selling pressure targeting the 0.6450–0.6400 support area. On the upside, a decisive daily close above 0.6600 could reignite bullish interest, with 0.6670 and 0.6750 as potential upside targets.
Bias is neutral to slightly bearish while the pair holds below 0.6600, with traders watching for a catalyst to break the current range.
EUR/USD recently rebounded from the 1.1360 support zone, staging a sharp recovery toward the 1.1575 level, which has now emerged as a key area of resistance. This level previously acted as a mid-range pivot during the earlier uptrend. Price action is currently testing the underside of the 15 and 20 SMAs, which have begun to turn downward, suggesting that bearish momentum may still be in play.
A sustained close above 1.1575 would be required to neutralize the recent downside pressure and open up potential upside toward the 1.1720–1.1800 area. On the flip side, rejection from this level could reignite bearish pressure, with downside targets seen near 1.1420 and potentially back to 1.1360.
The market remains in a corrective phase, with short-term momentum still uncertain.
GBP/USD has broken below a key support level at 1.3270, which had previously served as a strong base throughout May. The pair has since bounced slightly, but remains under pressure with both the 15- and 20-day SMAs trending downward, signalling a bearish short-term bias.
The pair’s recent high near 1.3800 now marks a critical resistance, and unless price reclaims the 1.3400–1.3500 zone, upside momentum may remain capped.
If the pair fails to build on this rebound and breaks below 1.3150, we could see a continuation toward the 1.3000 psychological level. Momentum remains weak, and sellers currently hold the edge.
USD/CAD has recently broken above the key resistance zone around 1.3770, a level that had previously capped price action for weeks. However, the pair is now struggling to hold above it, suggesting a possible retest or fakeout.
The 15-day and 20-day simple moving averages are beginning to slope upward, indicating a shift in momentum to the upside. However, the recent rejection from the 1.3890 area shows sellers are still active.
A daily close above 1.3800 would confirm bullish continuation, opening up potential upside toward the 1.3950–1.4000 region. Failure to hold above 1.3770 could see a pullback toward the moving averages near 1.3700, where support may be tested again.
USD/CHF has broken above the key support-turned-resistance level at 0.8070, suggesting a potential shift in momentum after a prolonged downtrend. Price is now consolidating just above this level, indicating that bulls may be trying to establish control.
The 15-day and 20-day simple moving averages have crossed to the upside for the first time in weeks, and both are now sloping gently higher. This is an early sign of a possible trend reversal, but confirmation is still needed.
A daily close above 0.8150 would likely validate further upside, opening the path toward the 0.8250 area. On the downside, failure to hold 0.8070 could see price revisiting the 0.7950–0.7900 zone, where prior demand may provide support.
USD/JPY is showing signs of potential exhaustion after failing to hold above the critical 150.00 psychological level. The pair has now dipped back below the key horizontal level at 147.60, which previously acted as strong resistance and is now being retested as support.
The 15-day and 20-day simple moving averages are beginning to flatten out, suggesting a possible loss of bullish momentum. Recent price action shows a rejection from the 152.00 area, indicating sellers are stepping in at higher levels.
A daily close below 147.00 could signal further downside potential, possibly toward the 144.50 region. However, if price reclaims 148.50 and moves above 150.00 again, it may reignite bullish pressure with the next key resistance near 152.50.
USD/ZAR is attempting a bullish breakout above the key psychological level of 18.0000, reclaiming a former support zone now turned resistance. After weeks of consolidation below this level, the recent bullish momentum has pushed the pair higher, suggesting renewed buying interest.
The 15-day and 20-day simple moving averages have just crossed to the upside, confirming a shift in short-term trend bias. Price action remains constructive as long as the pair holds above the 17.85–18.00 region.
A sustained daily close above 18.10 could pave the way for a move toward 18.50 or even 18.90. However, failure to maintain above 18.00 may see a retest of 17.75 support in the near term.
